YES
50.0%
$0.50 per share
NO
100.0%
$1.00 per share
Volume
$13.6M
Liquidity
$0
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which began on January 31, 2026, will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 50% | NO: 100%
$13.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 14, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 271,007 trades. The current price of 50¢ implies a 50% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $13.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.