YES
50.0%
$0.50 per share
NO
100.0%
$1.00 per share
Volume
$13.6M
Liquidity
$0
24h Trades
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which began on January 31, 2026, will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 50% | NO: 100%
$13.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 14, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 50% probability has been shaped by $13.6M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $13.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.