This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 14% | NO: 86%
$382,357 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 7,647 trades. The current price of 14¢ implies a 14% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.14, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 614% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.86, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 16% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 14%, there may be a trading opportunity.