This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 69% | NO: 31%
$1.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 31,212 trades. The current price of 69¢ implies a 69% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
This is a multi-outcome market with 5 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Iran Strike on Israel by December 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 69.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 45% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.