All Outcomes
9 candidates1the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decision
97.2%
2the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions
2.5%
3the Fed decide differently in the next three decis
0.4%
Volume
$1.0M
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 97% | NO: 3%
$1.0M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 18, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 20,647 trades. The current price of 97¢ implies a 97% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.0M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 9 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decision will win, you can buy YES shares at 97.2¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 3% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.