YES
57.5%
$0.57 per share
NO
42.5%
$0.42 per share
Volume
$516,824
Liquidity
$51,877
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 57% | NO: 43%
$516,824 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 10,336 trades. The current price of 57¢ implies a 57% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.57, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 74% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.42, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 135% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 57%, there may be a trading opportunity.