This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 79% | NO: 22%
$211.3M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 4,225,719 trades. The current price of 79¢ implies a 79% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $211.3M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 15 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 202 will win, you can buy YES shares at 78.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 27% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.