This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 100% | NO: 50%
$315,170 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 6,303 trades. The current price of 100¢ implies a 100% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 2 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 100.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 0% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.