What are the current odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?"?

The current YES odds are 50% and NO odds are 100% on Polymarket. Total trading volume is $10.6M.

How much has been traded on "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?"?

Total trading volume for this market is $10.6M with $0 in liquidity.

What is the sentiment on this market?

Based on recent flow analysis, the market sentiment is neutral. There have been 0 whale trades (>$10K) in the last 24 hours.

Polymarket China: 50% Odds — Whale Flow & Smart Money

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ends Mar 31, 2026Foreign PolicyResolved:

YES

50.0%

$0.50 per share

100.0%

$1.00 per share

Volume

$10.6M

Liquidity

24h Trades

Whale Trades

24h Flow Analysis

Buy Flow: $0Sell Flow: $0

Flow Imbalance0.0%

⚖️ Neutral flow - balanced buying and selling

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds?

YES: 50% | NO: 100%

How much volume has been traded?

$10.6M total volume

What is the market sentiment?

Neutral - balanced flow

When does this market end?

Mar 31, 2026

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About This Market

Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $10.6M in trading volume with $0 in liquidity. The 50% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.

What's Driving the Odds

High Volume: With $10.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.

How to Trade This Market

Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.

Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.

Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.