All Outcomes
24 candidates1Jay Feely
69.5%
2Joseph Chaplik
22.7%
3Derrick Gallego
3.5%
4Matt Gress
3.0%
5Mark Brnovich
1.8%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 70% | NO: 31%
$403,870 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Aug 4, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 70% probability has been shaped by $403,870 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 24 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Jay Feely will win, you can buy YES shares at 69.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 44% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.