YES
13.5%
$0.14 per share
NO
86.5%
$0.86 per share
Volume
$1.6M
Liquidity
$77,626
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 14% | NO: 87%
$1.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 14% probability has been shaped by $1.6M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $1.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.14, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 641% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.86, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 16% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 14%, there may be a trading opportunity.