This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 40% | NO: 61%
$4.7M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
May 1, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 40% probability has been shaped by $4.7M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $4.7M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 3 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
This is a multi-outcome market with 30 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May will win, you can buy YES shares at 39.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 153% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.