YES
0.9%
$0.01 per share
NO
99.1%
$0.99 per share
Volume
$740,928
Liquidity
$66,570
24h Trades
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 1% | NO: 99%
$740,928 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 1% probability has been shaped by $740,928 in trading activity.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.01, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 11011% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.99, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 1% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 1%, there may be a trading opportunity.