YES
11.5%
$0.12 per share
NO
88.5%
$0.89 per share
Volume
$511,285
Liquidity
$49,365
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 12% | NO: 89%
$511,285 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 12% probability has been shaped by $511,285 in trading activity.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.12, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 770% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.89, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 13% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 12%, there may be a trading opportunity.