All Outcomes
3 candidates1U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30
5.1%
Volume
$414,847
Liquidity
$13,427
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 5% | NO: 95%
$414,847 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 5% probability has been shaped by $414,847 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30 will win, you can buy YES shares at 5.1¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 1842% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.