All Outcomes
10 candidates1Belgium recognize Palestine
34.5%
2New Zealand recognize Palestine
31.5%
3Italy recognize Palestine
19.5%
4The Netherlands recognize Palestine
19.5%
5Japan recognize Palestine
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 35% | NO: 66%
$482,869 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 35% probability has been shaped by $482,869 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 10 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Belgium recognize Palestine will win, you can buy YES shares at 34.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 190% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.