All Outcomes
2 candidates1Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026
4.0%
Volume
$3.8M
Liquidity
$58,358
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 4% | NO: 96%
$3.8M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2025
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 76,110 trades. The current price of 4¢ implies a 4% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $3.8M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 2 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 4.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 2369% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.