This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between February 20, 12:00 PM ET and February 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 100% | NO: 50%
$552,781 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 27, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 100% probability has been shaped by $552,781 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 11 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from will win, you can buy YES shares at 100.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 0% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.