On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 7% | NO: 93%
$536,811 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jan 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 7% probability has been shaped by $536,811 in trading activity.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.07, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 1329% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.93, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 8% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 7%, there may be a trading opportunity.