This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the January 27, 2026 incident in which Rep. Ilhan Omar was sprayed with an unknown liquid at a Minneapolis town hall was staged, pre-arranged, orchestrated, fake, or otherwise not a genuine adversarial attack — including if broad consensus from credible reporting, or official statements (e.g., from law enforcement, U.S. government, or equivalent credible sources), confirms it was staged or pre-arranged. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements from the U.S. government, law enforcement agencies, or major credible news organizations concluding that the incident was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If no broad consensus from credible reporting and authoritative statements has been reached by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 0% | NO: 100%
$2.7M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 0% probability has been shaped by $2.7M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $2.7M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 49900% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 0%, there may be a trading opportunity.