All Outcomes
5 candidates1Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026
44.0%
2Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026
14.5%
Volume
$310,790
Liquidity
$11,373
On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 44% | NO: 56%
$310,790 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 44% probability has been shaped by $310,790 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 5 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 44.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 127% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.